CAER中国农村改革40周年专题之《从征税到补贴：1978年以来的中国农业政策》

本期导读：

本文旨在通过文献证明过去四十年中国农业政策从征收各种税费到向农民补贴的转变的速度和程度；预测到2030年世界经济的走势，指出在现行政策和生产率增长条件下中国将继续依赖于粮食进口；探索维护粮食安全的替代性政策工具，确保农民不会在经济增长情况下利益受损。

运用世界银行和经合组织可自由获取数据，估计了生产者激励的扭曲程度，进而对比分析了中国与其他相对更发达和不发达经济体的政策发展。从消极援助转变为积极援助的速度看，中国农民的名义援助率和相对援助率远比一般发展中国家要快，几乎和几十年前有着类似实际人均收入水平的东北亚邻国一样快。这有助于中国在改革的前二十年确保实现粮食的自给自足。但是，这种自给自足的状态正在下降，预计在现行政策下，该趋势将会在下个十年结束。

       本文基于名义和相对援助率以及公共领域的消费税等值对中国的农业激励扭曲指标进行了评估。作者从比较的视角，论证了这些指标在改革开放期间、实际人均收入增长以及农产品和食品自给自足发展条件下是如何演变的。同时，本文还提出了比扭曲生产者和消费价格的政策工具更为有效的社会目标实现方法。

From taxing to subsidizing farmers in China post-1978

Kym Anderson (pp. 36 - 47)

Keywords:Agricultural support policies, China’s economic growth, Food security, Multiple exchange rates

Type:General review

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to document the pace and extent to which China’s policy regime has transitioned over the past four decades from explicitly and implicitly taxing to subsidizing its farmers relative to its producers of other tradable goods; to present projections of the world economy to 2030 that suggest China will continue to become more food import-dependent under current policies and productivity growth rates; and to explore alternative policy instruments for remaining food secure and ensuring that farmers are not losers from economic growth.

Design/methodology/approach

The data used to estimate the extent of distortions to producer incentives come from freely available World Bank and OECD sources that allow direct comparisons of China’s policy developments with those of more- and less-advanced economies.

Findings

The estimates of nominal and relative rates of assistance to farmers reveal that China has made the transition from negative to positive assistance to farmers far faster than an average developing country, and almost as fast as its Northeast Asian neighbors did in earlier decades at similar levels of real per capita incomes. That helped to ensure China remained food self-sufficient during the first two decades of reform; but self-sufficiency is now declining and is projected to continue to do so over the next decade under current policies.

Research limitations/implications

Preventing food self-sufficiency from declining further by increasing agricultural protection would be very costly, and is now unnecessary, thanks to the information and communication technology revolution that enables the government to directly support the well-being of poor farm households with conditional cash transfers.

Originality/value

This review of indicators of distortions to agricultural incentives in China is based on estimates of nominal and relative rates of assistance and consumer tax equivalents that are in the public domain. Its originality is in presenting the estimates for China in a comparative perspective, showing how they have evolved over time and as real per capita incomes have grown, and relating that to developments in China’s self-sufficiency in agricultural and food products. The paper also points to more-efficient ways of achieving societal objectives than using policy instruments that distort producer and consumer prices.

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